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After a rough first round, Gilas Pilipinas’ path to a fourth straight FIBA World Cup appearance just got narrower. But it’s still navigable.
Well, that didn’t go as planned. Gilas Pilipinas dropped its last two games of the first round of the FIBA World Cup 2027 Asian Qualifiers to New Zealand and Australia to finish third in Group A with a 2-4 win-loss record.
The double-overtime loss against New Zealand, in particular, really stung. A win would have drawn Gilas level with the Tall Blacks at 3-3 and put them in a more favorable position in Group E for the second round.
Instead, as it stands Gilas is now on the outside looking in for one of the seven Asian slots up for grabs in the second round.
But all is not lost. There is still a path to qualifying for Qatar 2027, even if it’s littered with pitfalls at every corner. The margin of error for Gilas is very tight now, and several things have to break their way.
Here’s a quick FAQ of Gilas’ chances.
What’s the current scenario?
Gilas is now in Group E along with the two other top three teams in Group A – Australia and New Zealand – and the top three teams in Group C – Iran, Jordan and Syria. All teams will carry their win-loss record from the first round into the second round.
As it stands, Australia (6-0) leads the group, followed by Iran and Jordan (5-1), New Zealand (4-2) and Gilas and Syria (2-4). Each team plays the three other teams that were not in their first round group twice in a home-and-away format. For Gilas, this means two games against Iran, Jordan and Syria. It goes without saying that every win will count at this point.
Now, it’s also important to keep an eye on the developments in Group F, because the best fourth-place team will book the seventh and last Asian slot. Right now, the bottom three teams in Group F – Korea, China and Saudi Arabia – all sport 3-3 records.
What needs to happen for Gilas?
Aside from preferably winning all their remaining games, or at least going 5-1, Gilas has to hope results of other games in both groups go their way.
For Group E, Gilas would want The Boomers to flex their muscles and beat Iran, Jordan and Syria twice. This scenario is completely within the realm of the possible given Australia’s no. 5 world ranking.
Twin losses to Australia and Gilas would pull down Iran and Jordan and hypothetically allow Gilas to inch up to the top three in Group E. It would also be good if New Zealand were to beat Iran and Jordan at least once each.
Group F is a little trickier. Predicting who beats whom is a virtual crapshoot as Lebanon, Qatar, Japan, Korea, China and Saudi Arabia can all beat any of the other teams on any given day. Right now, Lebanon (5-1) has the inside track on one of the top three spots in the group. Three teams have only three losses, which means Gilas lags behind them by a full game.
Gilas has to hope that at least two of the 3-3 teams in Group F accumulate three or more losses in the second round to gain traction and be in a better position for a top seven finish.
What does Gilas need for the second round in terms of manpower?
The four combined losses to New Zealand and Australia in the first round exposed several flaws with Gilas.
Among the 16 Asia and Oceania teams that competed in the first round, the Philippines finished dead last in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting only 0.259, and 12th in 2-point shooting percentage with 0.488. Gilas was also in the bottom seven in turnovers per game, averaging 15.2.
On the plus side, it was a bit surprising to see that Gilas was actually ranked first in blocks per game at 5.2 after all the criticism hurled their way about their lack of a shot-blocker in the paint. Gilas also ranked third, behind only Australia in New Zealand, in rebounds per game with 47.2.
Gilas obviously needs to improve its perimeter offense. Outside shooting in FIBA competition is a must, especially against taller opponents who can easily clog the lane. Gilas’ best 3-point shooter – CJ Perez – ranked a mere 31st in 3-point shooting in the first round (36.4%), and he didn’t play in the last two games.
There’s also a need to improve ball-handling. The Tall Blacks and the Boomers effectively pressured Gilas’ guards into numerous turnovers, with New Zealand even giving Gilas all sorts of problems with inbound passes.
Finally, the lack of height needs to be addressed. AJ Edu is the only player close to seven feet, and he’s not an offensive threat. Mike Phillips provides a good burst of energy off the bench but like Edu he can’t really score from outside. If Kai Sotto and Quentin Millora-Brown continue to miss international duty then perhaps it’s time consider either Ange Kouame or Benny Boatwright for the naturalized player slot.
Banner images from FIBA.
Frequently Asked Questions
Gilas Pilipinas finished the first round of the FIBA World Cup 2027 Asian Qualifiers with a 2-4 record, placing third in Group A after losses to New Zealand and Australia. The team now carries that record into Group E of the second round.
In Group E, Gilas joins Australia, New Zealand, Iran, Jordan, and Syria, carrying over first-round records. Each team plays the three sides it did not face in the first round twice, home and away, giving Gilas two games each against Iran, Jordan, and Syria for a second-round slot.
The seventh and final Asian slot goes to the best fourth-place finisher between Group E and Group F. In Group F, Korea, China, and Saudi Arabia each carry 3-3 records, while Lebanon leads at 5-1, making that race central to Gilas Pilipinas’ remaining qualification hopes.
Gilas ranked last among Asia-Oceania teams in three-point shooting at 25.9 percent and 12th in two-point shooting at 48.8 percent, while also ranking near the bottom in turnovers per game at 15.2. The team ranked first in blocks per game and third in rebounding.
AJ Edu and Mike Phillips provide size but limited outside scoring for Gilas Pilipinas. If Kai Sotto and Quentin Millora-Brown remain unavailable for international duty, the team could consider naturalizing Ange Kouame or Benny Boatwright to address its lack of height in the frontcourt.
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